Dated: May 18, 2009
This was written by me after BJP got a drubbing at the polls.
The Indian electorate has at last given a mandate that is come close to being decisive. It is nowhere close to the 1984 mandate that it gave the Congress but far better than a fractured mandate that the pollsters has predicted and what we as a nation had believed-that the era of coalitions is here to stay. I would not attribute this to the “unpredictable” nature of the Indian voter but more to the unscientific nature of the methodology of these polls. For starters, the sample size appears very small given the vast and the heteregenous nature of the electorate. The margin of error is much higher than what the TV pundits thought it could be. A wise decision on the part of the the Election Commission that had placed a ban on publishing such polls until after the last vote had been cast. Isnt is called the secret ballot and the very nature of an exit poll (where you reveal who you voted for) contrary to the spirit of that?
While Congress and UPA have sailed in comfortably, it may still find itself at the mercy of the odd DMK or a JMM to bridge the gap. In the interest of the nation, every citizen should hope that these regional outfits do not extract more than what should be their rightful stake in keeping the government in power and respecting the people’s verdict in general. It is also good to note that the Mulayams, the Mayawatis and the Prakash Karats have been firmly caged giving the Congress half a decent crack at running the country, than having to just manouver to stay in power.
But what about the BJP? A party that had shown tremendous promise and had positioned itself as being different. The short answer is that the BJP as it stands today lacks a position in the mind of the voter. It (BJP) does not know what it stands for, who it’s constituency is and what message it should carry to the potential voter to gain vote share. The BJP think tank should look back, reminisce, embark on a voyage to rediscover itself, determine the message and then translate that into a strategy. It stands at a point in history where it is in danger of rendering itself irrelevant.
The whopping 182 that the BJP mustered in 1999 was as a result of a very focussed election plank; abolition of article 370, a uniform civil code and construction of the Ram mandir at Ayodhya. The BJP obviously had taken on more than what it could deliver. Firsty, it would need a 400+ mandate to deliver on such an ambitious promise. Remember Vajpayee’s speech to the NRIs in the US-“give us an absolute majority and we will make an India of our dreams”. Secondly, it would require to be a true national party to be able to garner an absolute mandate. it probably forgot that it was primarily a Hindi belt party with alliances (some permanant but mostly fluid) with virtually no presence in the south. Given these realities, it would need either a solid competitive edge or a real mess up (like Bofors) on the part of the ruling party resulting in a strong anti-incumbency factor to return with a strong mandate.
The last five years of the UPA were relatively uneventful for it appeared to be on cruise control for most of it’s five years. While the left presented some speed bumps along the way, it probably was far too paranoid to give the communal forces an opportunity to come to the centre; also the government negotiated those distractions successfully, the climax being the no confidence motion on the Indo-US nucleur treaty. So in the absence of any real issues the BJP resorted to creating issues-attacking the prime minister (weakest PM), targeting the dynasty culture in the Congress and so on. The time has come for Indians to reconcile to the fact that the dynasty is a part of our culture (in politics, in industry etc) and the sooner the BJP decides to accept this, the easier it is going to make it on itself and focus on some real issues.
BJP had found itself in a similar situation in 2004 as the Congress did in 2009. A great tenure, India a darling of the FIIs, bubbling stock markets and a “feel good” factor that an average Indian experienced. BJP would have returned with a thumping majority on the plank of good governance. (Gone was article 370, the uniform civil code and the Ram Mandir. We were told by the eloquent Ravi Shankar Prasad, Arun Jaitley and Co that it was very much a part of the core agenda but they had to adhere to a Common Minimum Program given the compulsions of alliance politics). Good governance happened; it was not a part of the strategy.
But that was not to be as 2002 Gujarat riots were a bloody blot on the business savvy Narendra Modi and the BJP. The average Indian could not fathom how the government could look the other way when goons went about bashing citizens. And our liberal media and human rights activists made sure that Gujarat was alive and well in the psyche of one and all. A thing that needs to be said here of our liberal media-contrast the the tongue in cheek attitude of Barkha Dutt, Prannoy Roy and Co when they interview a BJP person versus the subservient attitude with a Congress person.
BJP was under some sort of misconception that they could go it alone and did not bother as they lost a whole bunch of allies along the way. They believed that the country would accept Gujarat as an aberration and it would be eclipsed by the it’s other achievements. BJP seemed to be in the process of writing “How to lose friends and putoff people”. And that process continued till this election. So whether it meant projecting Narendra Modi as a prime ministerial candidate, defending Varun Gandhi who spewed politically incorrect venom or giving the villain of Kandhmal, Ashok Sahu a ticket, BJP was on a suicidal course. Call it belligerence or over confidence but the BJP top brass chose to look the other way.
So while the dynasty culture of the Congress saw the emergence of smart looking, public school and Ivy league alumni (Rahul Gandhi of course and Scindia Jr, Pilot Jr, Deora Jr, Jitin Prasad, Supriya Sule etc) the image of the BJP was either dhoti clad 80 year olds fighting amongst themselves or young bullies attacking girls in bars and valentine day celebrations earning for themselves the dubious title of “Hindu Taliban” . So while the Congress looked to be evolving, youthful and forward looking, BJP was a picture of parochialism. Narendra Modi called the Congress an old lady; sadly in contrast it was BJP that was looking geriatric.
So where does the BJP go from here? It should first get back to the grass-roots and work to make a mark in state assembly elections hoping to govern some states. A return to a Hindutva agenda would make them further obsolete. They should model themselves on the lines of the Republican party in the US; pro industry, pro capitalist, pro family values without ignoring the uplifment of the rural poor;make their states show cases of good governance. It should be seen as more inclusive; or if being inclusive is not in it’s DNA, it could at least stop being divisive. The BJP should prepare itself for a long haul in the opposition benches. The Congress today is not the Congress of Rajiv Gandhi and it is unlikely to fritter away this opportunity that the elctorate has given it.
The-White-Belt 